Who’s The Source?ByRaymond D. Matkowsky
When newspapers were the main dispensers of information, I would read three of them a day. Basically, they were scanned from page one to the end. I would then go back and read the articles of interest to me. I felt that I got varied opinions on accurate information from sources I trusted. Unfortunately, most newspapers that still exist are only empty shells of what they used to be. Many people now get their information from the internet and social media.
Both are cesspools of purposely untrue information, misinformation, and information that needs context. It is not unusual to see two contradictory articles (stated as facts) written at the same time on the same day. Of course, there is useful information mixed in. But let me add that sometimes a person with an agenda will find it advantageous to spread negative information. Sometimes it is obvious, sometimes not. But how do you tell the difference?
Is The Source Trust Worthy?
The first thing I do is check for the author’s name and credentials. If I don’t recognize it, I check for the publisher. Be wary of publishers you do not recognize. Do a fact check. Use verified signatories of the International Fact-Checking Network, which requires a demonstrated commitment to nonpartisanship, fairness and transparency. This is a good step, but it does not guarantee an unbiased report or opinion.
You may be your best fact checker. What do you see? Does it match what is said? Let me give you an example. The condition of the United States’ economy has been front and center in many debates. It is either terrible or booming. So, what is it?
My Analysis
This is what I see. Unemployment is at a record low. There are more unfilled jobs than there are unemployed. In January 2017 real average hourly earnings (wages adjusted for inflation) was $10.65. In June 2024 it was $11.18. Remember, inflation has been accounted for. 150,000 jobs need to be created each month in order to account for population growth. In June 2024, 206,000 jobs were created. With the exception of April 2024, job growth has exceeded 200,000 each month in 2024.
People are now taking expensive vacations both foreign and domestic. During the last downturn, people were taking “staycations.” Vendors took advantage by selling backyard pools as an alternative to expensive getaways.
Ronald Reagan once asked United States’ voters “were they better off now than four years ago.” If that question was asked now many would say no, but many would say yes.
There is more to be examined. I look at mortgage interest rates levels, gasoline prices, and inflation a little differently. All three can have a negative effect on some people but not all. All three are subjective as to how they affect your vision of the economy. However, they are only a small segment of the economic picture.
“Young families can’t afford to buy a home.” “Mortgage rates are too high.” These two statements are older than most people making them. I felt the same way when I bought a home in 1979. My rate was slightly more than ten percent. Peak mortgage rates occurred in 1981. They were eighteen point six three percent. To me a seven percent rate is low. If you are used to seeing a two and a half percent rate, it is high. High rates do not destroy the economy by themselves and people have lived with “high” rates before during good and bad economies.
The same can be said for gasoline prices. I remember when a gallon (3.79 L) of gas was twenty five cents. Is three dollars and fifty cents high? If you commute five miles (8.46 Km.) a day, the price doesn’t matter. If you commute fifty miles (80.46 Km.) a day, it does. Each situation is individual and does not make for a bad economy.
Gasoline prices appear to be of little consequence today. This Fourth of July holiday set travel records in the United States. Forty percent of those travelling, travelled by car and for long distances.
Interest rates are the cost of using someone else’s money. High interest rates do not affect everyone equally. To a large portion of the population, they do not matter.
This is my analysis of today’s economy. I will base my decisions on this analysis and similar future analyses.
Good Decisions Are Informed Decisions
As a business leader you are called upon to make decisions daily. It can be costly to make the wrong decision. Fact Check what you hear and read. If you make a wrong decision based on erroneous information it could cost your company thousands of Dollars, Euros, Pounds, etc. With the right information, you may add thousands to your company’s bottom line.
You could start by fact checking me. The procedure may seem cumbersome at first, but it will soon become automatic and take up little of your time. I urge you to start. An informed decision is a better decision.
If you have any comments, let us know. Email me at rdm@datastats.com. We will try to print it in our next newsletter.
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