Ready or Not: Electric VehiclesByRaymond D. Matkowsky
Over the past year, I have written two articles about Electric Vehicles (EVs). One questioning their value and one offerring alternatives that make more sense to me. They can be obtained here and here. Regular readers know that I do not support EVs that use the present technology. I do believe that electric vehicles have a future in the transportation mix. However, the present day technology is not consumer ready.
The United States Post Office recently told lawmakers that the lack of infrastructure, distance, and climate conditions make 12,500 routes infeasible or impractical for the use of EVs. I am sure that there ae many more such situations. Governments have their ambitions but reality is something else. Reality is different for every country and every indvidual.
There are many problems with EVs that we do not have an answer for. If the general public is made aware of the extent of problems, I believe that they would shy away from purchasing an electric car. Eventualy, these problems will be solved. However, EVs will have such a bad reputation by that time there will be few customers willing to buy the product.
Fire Hazard
It has been well reported that EVs have caught fire after accidents, during recharging cycles or just parked. Fire departments find it very difficult to put these fires out. In one example, a fire company finally put out a fire only to have the car reignite an hour later. This same car caught fire a third time while sitting in the dealer’s parking lot.
These incidences have become so serious that General Motors has now said that their vehicles should not be parked near homes and should not be left unattended during charging cycle. With a level two rapid charger, which is usually installed in a garage, it can take up to eight hours to fully recharge the batteries. I doubt that someone will spend eight hours watching the car charge.
General Motors has already recalled 142,000 Bolt Models for battery problems at a cost of US$ 1.8 billion. Recalls have cost Hyundai more than US$900 million. The industry knows that this is a serious issue that has to be resolved to go forward, but they do not have an answer to the problem.
The industry hopes that solid state batteries (that have no liquid) will solve their problem. By their own admission though, this technology is years away and it may or may not solve the problem. In the meantime they will manufacture cars with defective battery technology.
Security Risks
Building an electric vehicle requires six times more minerals than a gas powered version. Mining for the necessary minerals whether in the United States or most likely in foreign countries is raising protests all over the world. These protests will delay a clean energy future and grind the EV industry to a halt since most of the minerals are mined in unstable or hostile nations.
A hostile nation can cripple the U.S. or Western European transportation system just by witholding the necessary minerals and a well placed attack. EVs would subject western nations to the whims of their adversaries. Remember, your ally today may be your adversary tomorrow or visa versa.
Clean Energy?
Even some of our most trusted technologies have failed us in the past. So is the case with Electric Vehicles. In my opinion EVs are another pandora’s box that the world is racing to open.
In 2020, the general estimate was that there is 1.42 billion vehicles world wide. This includes 1.06 billion passenger cars and 363 million commercial vehicles. The average EV has a 66 kilowat per hour (kwh) battery. Some batteries go upto 115 kwh levels.
To charge an average battery, 70 pounds (154 kg.) of coal or 8 gallons (30.28 kg.) of oil needs to be burned. The energy value of natural gas is measured in barrels of oil equivalents. Prior to separation, natural gas is mixed with crude oil. It will take about 1142.9 cubic feet of natural gas to charge that battery. To give you a point of comparison, the average U.S. home uses 196 cubic feet of gas per day.
Simple math says that 1.42 billion vehicles will use 100.9 billion pounds of coal or 9.4 billion gallons oil (18.8 million barrels) or 1622.9 billion cubic feet of natural gas to charge every vehicle one time. This is on top of what is needed for other uses.
Throughout the world electcal grids are failing. Power outages and their extent is unpredictable. This has the potential of leaving many electric vehicles as useful as a brick.
Many nations depend solely on coal to generate their electricity. It is very diffficult to pinpoint the exact amount of electricity the world will use because generation may use a mix of coal, oil, natural gas, and renewables. The fraction of renewables is so small that it makes very little difference in calculations on whether or not it is included.
Alternative Technologies
Solid state batteries may be the answer to the possibility of a fire during an accident or during recharging. Battery capacity is certainly a huge factor. This still leaves a great number of unanswered questions:
Is the world’s electrcal grid ready for EVs?
Who is going to pay for any upgrades?
Are EVs compatible with the climate in which
they will be used?
To me there appears to be several business oportunities here. Clearly, EVs need a different energy source or modified propulsion system to be viable. A reduction or a new source of rare minerals will be needed.
I have been a propnent of making the internal combusion engine more efficient. The efficiency of the internal combustion engine is very poor. However, slight modifications to the engine’s efficiency would go a long way in reducing its dependency on oil. We have faced this problem before with the transition from piston to jet engine aircraft and it has been solved.
There is a reason why the internal combustion engine has been around for over 150 years. Nothing better has been found that could match the performance and capabilities of the engine. There are over 150 years of data and hundreds of modifications to base research on. Unlike EVs, you would not be heading into the unfamiliar. Advances in development of new consumer products frequently results from researching improvements to existing products.
Do you have any comments or other suggestions, please share them with your fellow readers. Email me at rdm@datastats.com.
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