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United States Gross Domestic Product vs. Productivity Growth
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United States Gross Domestic Product vs. Productivity
(Year to Quarter; not seasonally adjusted)
| Quarter/Year |
GDP (% Change) |
Productivity (% Change) |
| II/2019 | 2.3 | 1.8 |
| III/2019 | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| IV/2019 | 2.2* | 1.8 |
| I/2020 | 0.6* | 0.7 |
| II/2020 | -9.0 | 2.8 |
| III/2020 | -2.6 | 4.0 |
| IV/2020 | -1.9 | 2.4 |
| I/2021 | 0.5 | 4.1 |
| II/2021 | 12.6 | 1.8 |
| III/2021 | 4.7 | -0.6 |
| IV/2021 | 5.4 | 1.9 |
| I/2022 | 4.2* | -0.6 |
| II/2022 | 1.9 | -2.4 |
| III/2022 | 2.1 | -1.3 |
| IV/2022 | 0.9 | -1.8 |
| I/2023 | 2.0 | -0.8 |
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* Revised from Final Report
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Economic Analysis
Unless otherwise stated all references to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or Productivity is based on year to quarter data. For reasons of continuity and comparisons with previous plots, the limits on the present graph has remained the same as before even though the economic decline or accelleration exceeds those limits. This analysis is based on data obtained from reports issued by the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Department of Labor Statistics.
Productivity
Productivity during the first quarter of 2023 is still low, but improving. Initialy we assumed that a laging and variable productivity is one sign of an inadequate workforce. However the workforce is increasing. So is productivity. Not as fast as we have assumed. This still may reflect an inadequate workforce. However, we have begun to believe there may be addditional problems.
Economy
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) states that the rate of advancement for the first quarter of 2023 quarter showed improvement over 2022. The economy is approximately at the mean value it has beeen over the last fifty years. One has to remember that 1.0% growth for a multitrillion dollar economy like the United States has can equal the 2.0% growth for a billion dollar economy. We report the data (taken from BEA reports) as year to quarter, not seasonally adjusted. Our reading indicates an increase of 2.0% (year to quarter) over where the fourth quarter of 2022.
Bank of America belives the United States' economy is headed for a rally this summer. A predicted economic slump has not occurrerd.
This economy is certainly much better than many other parts of the world. Unemployment is low. There are close to 12 million jobs that lacks the workers to fill them. 98% of the jobs lost during Covid-19 have been regained. People have been leaving their old jobs and searching for new and better jobs in droves. The United States will probably lead the world in an economic recovery. What is not good is inflation. However, inflation is subsiding also.
Finally, you have people that continue to spend. They complain about the cost of gasoline and food but they say to themselves "let's buy this now because it will cost more in the future." Personal spending hasn't gone down. This is a sure way to accelerate inflation, but inflation is now heading down.
Raymond D. Matkowsky
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