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IQ14 to IVQ17 GDP (% Yearly Change) vs. Productivity (% Yearly Change)

United States Gross Domestic Product vs. Productivity Growth




United States Gross Domestic Product vs. Productivity
(Year to Quarter)
Quarter/Year GDP (% Change) Productivity (% Change)
IV/2014
2.4
-0.1
I/2015
2.9*
0.3
II/2015
2.7
0.7*
III/2015
2.2
0.6
IV/2015
2.0
0.5
I/2016
1.6*
0.7
II/2016
1.3
-0.4
III/2016
1.7
0
IV/2016
2.0
1
I/2017
2.0*
1.2
II/2017
2.2
1.2
III/2017
2.3
1.4
IV/2017
2.6
1.1
I/2018
2.8*
1.3
II/2018
2.9
1.3
III/2018
3.0
1.3
* Revised from Final Report

If you haven't done so yet, we recommend that you review the section on how we suggest this data should be interpeted.


Economic Analysis

Unless otherwise stated all references to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or Productivity is based on year to quarter data.

GDP-Productivity

The third quarter readings have indicated that very little has changed over the three months covered. GDP grew very slightly to the point that the readings may reflect more "noise" than actual growth. Productivity did not grow at all.

This is the third quarter in a row that Productivity increases has been stuck at 1.3%. It is difficult to pinpoint the reason for this. It maybe that industry cannot advance without hiring more workers or industry needs more automation to produce more.

Other Economic Indicators

As was the case last quarter, economic indicators are all over the map. Some are up. Some are down. However, more are indicating that a recession will occur in late 2019.


Raymond D. Matkowsky


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