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IIIQ17 to IIQ21 GDP (% Yearly Change) vs. Productivity (% Yearly Change)

United States Gross Domestic Product vs. Productivity Growth




United States Gross Domestic Product vs. Productivity
(Year to Quarter; not seasonally adjusted)
Quarter/Year GDP (% Change) Productivity (% Change)
III/2020
-2.6
4.0
IV/2020
-1.9
2.4
I/2021
0.5
4.1
II/2021
12.6
1.8
III/2021
4.7
-0.6
IV/2021
5.4
1.9
I/2022
4.2*
-0.6
II/2022
1.9
-2.4
III/2022
2.1
-1.3
IV/2022
0.9
-1.8
I/2023
2.0
-0.8
II/2023
2.5
1.3
III/2023
2.8
2.2
IV/2023
2.9
2.6
I/2024
2.9
2.9
II/2024
3.0
2.7
* Revised from Final Report

If you haven't done so yet, we recommend that you review the section on how we suggest this data should be interpeted.


Economic Analysis

Unless otherwise stated all references to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or Productivity is based on year to quarter data. For reasons of continuity and comparisons with previous plots, the limits on the present graph has remained the same as before even though the economic decline or accelleration exceeds those limits. This analysis is based on data obtained from reports issued by the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Department of Labor Statistics.


Productivity

Productivity growth during the second quarter of 2024 was 2.7%. Long term growth (over 50 years) is 2.7%. Productivity growth is at its historical average and probably will contine to hover around that point.

Productivity may of been higher during portions of the covid years but this could not be taken as "normal."

Economy

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) states that the rate of GDP advancement for the first quarter of 2024 was 3.0%. Long term growth, historicaly has been 3.18%.

For a developed economy, a growth rate of 2 to 3% is considered normal. A growth rate above that level and strong job cretation is a strong sign that the economy is prospering.

The botomline is that economy is prospering and doing far better than many of the other developed nations.

Rapid growth can bring on more inflation, though, because of high demand and low supplies. We need to be cautious about the possibility. Lower inflation will not bring prices down as long as consumers continue to buy. They will not rise as much in the future.


Raymond D. Matkowsky


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