Economic Analysis
Unless otherwise stated all references to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or Productivity is based on year to quarter data. For reasons of continuity and comparisons with previous plots, the limits on the present graph has remained the same as before even though the economic decline or accelleration exceeds those limits. This analysis is based on data obtained from reports issued by the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Department of Labor Statistics.
Productivity
Productivity during the fourth quarter of 2022 is still lackluster, but improving. A laging and variable productivity is one sign of an inadequate workforce.
This may be an indication of the need to hire more people accelerating the economy even further. I have been arguing this point for a while. Since it is assumed that workers will produce many times their cost, the economy should increase beyond today's numbers even further if more workers can be hired.
Economy
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) states that the rate of advancement for the fourth quarter showed a slight decrease over the third quarter of 2022. The economy is advancing. One has to remember that 1.0% growth for a multitrillion dollar economy like the United States has can equal the 2.0% growth for a billion dollar economy. We report the data (taken from BEA reports) as year to quarter, not seasonally adjusted. Our reading indicates an increase of 0.9% (year to quarter) over where the third quarter was.
Bank of America belives the United Sttates' economy is headed for a rally this summer. However, this will be preceded by an economic slump in May 2023. Their recomendation is to make changes to investments in May and then hold. It should be said that their outlook is the diredct opposite of other banks.
This economy is certainly much better than many other parts of the world. Unemployment is low. There are close to 12 million jobs that lacks the workers to fill them. 98% of the jobs lost during Covid-19 have been regained. People have been leaving their old jobs and searching for new and better jobs in droves. The United States will probably lead the world in an economic recovery. What is not good is inflation.
Inflation is not on the rise. Athough inflation has shown indications that it is subsiding, not everyone is convinced. The reasons behind inflation are many. Admittedly, it is difficult to predict what will happen. However, in my mind three stand out. In the United States, one of the main culprits is the Federal Reserve (FED). The FED has two jobs. Protect workers from unemployent and to keep inflation to a minimum. They failed on both counts because they seemed to be more worried about what Wall Street thinks than the conditions on main street. In short, to accomodate investors, they kept money too cheap for too long. Throughout history easy money breeds inflation. The experts should have known this. They let us down.
The disruptions that Covid-19 brought about caused shortages of common goods and supply chains. This has also exposed one of the negative effects of off-shoring. If we did not have off-shoring, the economy would have stronger. It is questionable
if off-shoring has actually saved money in the long run. You have the law of supply and demand. The war in Europe has added to the shortages. This pressure point will not be relieved until the war is over.
Finally, you have people that continue to spend. They complain about the cost of gasoline and food but they say to themselves "let's buy this now because it will cost more in the future." Personal spending hasn't gone down. This is a sure way to accelerate inflation, but inflation is now heading down.
Raymond D. Matkowsky
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