You are in: Home > U.S Economic and Productivity Chart and Analysis
Data Stats: Advanced Statistical Analysis/Process Improvement/Enterprise Solutions/Profit Enhancement for Small Business
Google
wwwdatastats.com      
International Weather Forecasts

Old Bridge, NJ time and temperature. Click for Old Bridge New Jersey Forecast











We don't make a product, we help you make yours more profitable!

Home Enlighten Thoughts Business Toolkit Traveler's Toolkit Engineer's Toolkit About Data Stats EspaŮol
Mission Statement Contact Info FAQ About Our Services Newsletter Reg. and Comments Twenty Nickels (Current) Twenty Nickels (Archives) PortuguÍs
Advisory Board Archives Resources Page First time visitor? Need a site orientation? GO Here!


IIIQ17 to IIQ21 GDP (% Yearly Change) vs. Productivity (% Yearly Change)

United States Gross Domestic Product vs. Productivity Growth




United States Gross Domestic Product vs. Productivity
(Year to Quarter; not seasonally adjusted)
Quarter/Year GDP (% Change) Productivity (% Change)
IV/2018
3.0
1.8
I/2019
2.7
2.4
II/2019
2.3
1.8
III/2019
1.9
1.5
IV/2019
2.2*
1.8
I/2020
0.6*
0.7
II/2020
-9.0
2.8
III/2020
-2.6
4.0
IV/2020
-1.9
2.4
I/2021
0.5
4.1
II/2021
12.6
1.8
III/2021
4.7
-0.6
IV/2021
5.4
1.9
I/2022
4.2*
-0.6
II/2022
1.9
-2.4
III/2022
2.1
-1.3
* Revised from Final Report

If you haven't done so yet, we recommend that you review the section on how we suggest this data should be interpeted.


Economic Analysis

Unless otherwise stated all references to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or Productivity is based on year to quarter data. For reasons of continuity and comparisons with previous plots, the limits on the present graph has remained the same as before even though the economic decline or accelleration exceeds those limits. This analysis is based on data obtained from reports issued by the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Department of Labor Statistics.


Productivity

Productivity during the third quarter of 2022 is still lackluster, but improving. A laging and variable productivity is one sign of an inadequate workforce. This is what we have been witnessing the last few quarters. The third quarter of 2022 is no different. This may be an indication of the need to hire more people accelerating the economy even further. I have been arguing this point for a while. It should be tried before anything else. However, there is a big backlog of open positions now, so more hiring may only be an academic issue. Since it is assumed that workers will produce many times their cost, the economy should increase beyond today's numbers even further if more workers can be hired.

Economy

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) states that the third quarter showed a slight increase over the second quarter of 2022. Basicly, the economy is averaging the rate of growth that has occurred over the last fifty years. We report the data (taken from BEA reports) as year to quarter, not seasonally adjusted. Otherwise, if the previous quarter was good, it will make the next quarter look unchanged or bad. The opposite would be true if the previous quarter was subpar. This is a problem with the way the BEA reports data. They show the acceleration over the quarter, not where the economy is. Our reading indicates an increase of 2.1% (year to quarter) over where the second quarter was. Like we said, this is average growth. Average over the last fifty years has been about 1.8% a year.

This economy is certainly much better than many other parts of the world. Unemployment is low. There are close to 12 million jobs that lacks the workers to fill them. 98% of the jobs lost during Covid-19 have been regained. People have been leaving their old jobs and searching for new and better jobs in droves. The United States will probably lead the world in an economic recovery. What is not good is inflation.

Inflation is on the rise and it is not "transistory." Athough inflation has shown indications that it is subsiding, not everyone is convinced. The reasons behind inflation are many. Admittedly, it is difficult to predict what will happen. However, in my mind three stand out. In the United States, one of the main culprits is the Federal Reserve (FED). The FED has two jobs. Protect workers from unemployent and to keep inflation to a minimum. They failed on both counts because they seemed to be more worried about what Wall Street thinks than the conditions on main street. In short, to accomodate investors, they kept money too cheap for too long. Throughout history easy money breeds inflation. The experts should have known this. They let us down.

The disruptions that Covid-19 brought about caused shortages of common goods and supply chains. This has also exposed one of the negative effects of off-shoring. If we did not have off-shoring, the economy would have stronger. It is questionable if off-shoring has actually saved money in the long run. You have the law of supply and demand. The war in Europe has added to the shortages. This pressure point will not be relieved until the war is over.

Finally, you have people that continue to spend. They complain about the cost of gasoline and food but they say to themselves "let's buy this now because it will cost more in the future." Personal spending hasn't gone down. This is a sure way to accelerate inflation. Will it take a recessioin? No one knows.


Raymond D. Matkowsky


Top Of Page