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IIIQ17 to IIQ21 GDP (% Yearly Change) vs. Productivity (% Yearly Change)

United States Gross Domestic Product vs. Productivity Growth



United States Gross Domestic Product vs. Productivity
(Year to Quarter; not seasonally adjusted)
Quarter/Year GDP (% Change) Productivity (% Change)
III/2021
4.7
-0.6
IV/2021
5.4
1.9
I/2022
4.2*
-0.6
II/2022
1.9
-2.4
III/2022
2.1
-1.3
IV/2022
0.9
-1.8
I/2023
2.0
-0.8
II/2023
2.5
1.3
III/2023
2.8
2.2
IV/2023
2.9
2.6
I/2024
2.9*
2.9
II/2024
3.0
2.7
III/2024
2.5
2.0
IV/2024
2.9*
2.0
I/2025
1.9
1.3
II/2025
2.0
1.5
* Revised from Final Report

If you haven't done so yet, we recommend that you review the section on how we suggest this data should be interpeted.


Economic Analysis

Unless otherwise stated all references to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or Productivity is based on year to quarter data. For reasons of continuity and comparisons with previous plots, the limits on the present graph has remained the same as before even though the economic decline or accelleration exceeds those limits. This analysis is based on data obtained from reports issued by the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Department of Labor Statistics.


Gross Domestic Product and Productivity

The US economy is slowing down significantly. The slowdown is about 1% to 1.5% on a yearly basis. We are on the cusp of a recession. The second quarter did not show a slowdown. Running a "trendline analaysis" may indicate future possibilities. As of now we feel that we do not have enough data for a reliable result. At the moment a trendline can go in many directions. One scenario indicates a situation that can become a serious recession. Second quarter data does not clarify the possibilities further. However, I do expect further slowdowns for the remainder of the year.

The effects of tariffs will noe show up until November or December

Productivity is also down but this to be expected. We have the same number of workers creating less value. I would expect layoffs. Layoffs, however, would lag a downturn.


Raymond D. Matkowsky


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