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IQ14 to IVQ17 GDP (% Yearly Change) vs. Productivity (% Yearly Change)

United States Gross Domestic Product vs. Productivity Growth




United States Gross Domestic Product vs. Productivity
(Year to Quarter)
Quarter/Year GDP (% Change) Productivity (% Change)
I/2014
1.9*
0.5
II/2014
2.6
1.1
III/2014
2.4
0.7
IV/2014
2.4
-0.1
I/2015
2.9*
0.3
II/2015
2.7
0.7*
III/2015
2.2
0.6
IV/2015
2.0
0.5
I/2016
1.6*
0.7
II/2016
1.3
-0.4
III/2016
1.7
0
IV/2016
2.0
1
I/2017
2.0*
1.2
II/2017
2.2
1.2
III/2017
2.3
1.5
IV/2017
2.9
1.3
* Revised from Final Report

If you haven't done so yet, we recommend that you review the section on how we suggest this data should be interpeted.


Economic Analysis

Unless otherwise stated all references to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or Productivity is based on year to quarter data.

The fourth quarter GDP was very slightly better than the third quarter (2.9% compared to 2.3%). Productivity was down slightly but basically within the average range of Productivity growth since 1947 (1.9%). Betwween 1947 and 1973, Productivity growth was 2.8%. It has fallen since. Productivity growth between the years 2007 and 2017 was only 1.2%

We do not envision GDP growth rates beyond the range of 2% to 3%, inspite of the U.S. income tax cuts. Our belief hinges on the velocity of money. The velocity of money represents how fast money is turned over from one person or entity to another for the purchase of new goods and services. Between 1953 and 1983 the velocity of money averaged 1.75. It averages 1.43 now. That is the lowest since 1949.


Raymond D. Matkowsky


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