You are in: Home > U.S Economic and Productivity Chart and Analysis
Data Stats: Advanced Statistical Analysis/Process Improvement/Enterprise Solutions/Profit Enhancement for Small Business
Google
wwwdatastats.com      
International Weather Forecasts

Old Bridge, NJ time and temperature. Click for Old Bridge New Jersey Forecast











We don't make a product, we help you make yours more profitable!

Home Enlighten Thoughts Business Toolkit Traveler's Toolkit Engineer's Toolkit About Data Stats EspaŮol
Mission Statement Contact Info FAQ About Our Services Newsletter Reg. and Comments Twenty Nickels (Current) Twenty Nickels (Archives) PortuguÍs
Advisory Board Archives Resources Page First time visitor? Need a site orientation? GO Here!


IQ14 to IVQ17 GDP (% Yearly Change) vs. Productivity (% Yearly Change)

United States Gross Domestic Product vs. Productivity Growth




United States Gross Domestic Product vs. Productivity
(Year to Quarter)
Quarter/Year GDP (% Change) Productivity (% Change)
III/2014
2.4
0.7
IV/2014
2.4
-0.1
I/2015
2.9*
0.3
II/2015
2.7
0.7*
III/2015
2.2
0.6
IV/2015
2.0
0.5
I/2016
1.6*
0.7
II/2016
1.3
-0.4
III/2016
1.7
0
IV/2016
2.0
1
I/2017
2.0*
1.2
II/2017
2.2
1.2
III/2017
2.3
1.4
IV/2017
2.6
1.1
I/2018
2.8*
1.3
II/2018
2.9
1.3
* Revised from Final Report

If you haven't done so yet, we recommend that you review the section on how we suggest this data should be interpeted.


Economic Analysis

Unless otherwise stated all references to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or Productivity is based on year to quarter data.

GDP

The United States Gross Domestic Product grew slightly during the second quarter of 2018. There was no increase in productivity. This is contrary to what U.S. Governmnt says. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) claims that GDP grew by 4.2% when viewed on an annualized basis. I find this very decieving. Those that depend on these reports need to take them with a large "grain of salt." The BEA tries to project the GDP into the future by comparing the result with the previous quarter. A bad previous quarter makes the present quarter look good. A good previous quarter makes the present quarter look bad when it isn't or at best makes the GDP looks like it is standing still. The true numbers are available in each report. Very seldom will the final year end number reflect the quarterly reports.

At Data Stats we report the year to quarter data. We feel that this data is more accurate than the annualized data the Government highlights. Our data more accurately predicts the final year end growth. In fact, there have been times that our analysis has concluded that The Gross Domestic Product growth was larger than the governments estimates. Let me give you an example using the story of the Hare and the Tortice. The hare was blazing fast, much like the annualized GDP data. This annualized data is subject starts and stops though. It shows the possible progression but not the actual progression. On the other hand, just like the tortice, the year to quarter data shows the slower but actual progression.

4.2% annualized rate is accurate. However, I feel, that 2.9% progress from last year more accurately reflects what the U.S. Economy has accomplished.

Other Economic Indicators

Other economic indicators are all over the map. Some are up. Some are down. I still feel that a recession will occur earlier than what most economists have said. I constantly remind myself that as a whole, economist have a 100% track record-100% wrong. It is still too early to tell, but I believe the present U.S-China tariff War may bring on a recession in 2019. It is doubtful that the Chinese will give in and it would be politically disastrous for the present administration to give in.


Raymond D. Matkowsky


Top Of Page