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IIIQ17 to IIQ21 GDP (% Yearly Change) vs. Productivity (% Yearly Change)

United States Gross Domestic Product vs. Productivity Growth




United States Gross Domestic Product vs. Productivity
(Year to Quarter; not seasonally adjusted)
Quarter/Year GDP (% Change) Productivity (% Change)
IV/2019
2.2*
1.8
I/2020
0.6*
0.7
II/2020
-9.0
2.8
III/2020
-2.6
4.0
IV/2020
-1.9
2.4
I/2021
0.5
4.1
II/2021
12.6
1.8
III/2021
4.7
-0.6
IV/2021
5.4
1.9
I/2022
4.2*
-0.6
II/2022
1.9
-2.4
III/2022
2.1
-1.3
IV/2022
0.9
-1.8
I/2023
2.0
-0.8
II/2023
2.5
1.3
III/2023
2.8
2.2
* Revised from Final Report

If you haven't done so yet, we recommend that you review the section on how we suggest this data should be interpeted.


Economic Analysis

Unless otherwise stated all references to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or Productivity is based on year to quarter data. For reasons of continuity and comparisons with previous plots, the limits on the present graph has remained the same as before even though the economic decline or accelleration exceeds those limits. This analysis is based on data obtained from reports issued by the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Department of Labor Statistics.


Productivity

Productivity during the third quarter of 2023 is within its typical range over the last fifty years. Increasing productivity will spur the economy further.

Economy

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) states that the rate of advancement for the third quarter of 2023 was 4.9%. This is the rate of acceleration. We report the actual growth over the similar quarter a year ago. We feel that this gives a truer picture of where the economy is. Regardless this the second best GDP since the Lyndon Johnson administration and very close to the best in the last few years.

Inflation is still a problem but it is improving. Inflation is a supply and demand problem. It started with shipping shortages. Too many people chasing too few goods. That has been substantially corrected. However, you have people that continue to spend. They complain about the cost of gasoline and food but they say to themselves "let's buy this now because it will cost more in the future." That raise prices. Personal spending hasn't gone down. This is a sure way to accelerate inflation. There is a saying "that the best thing that can cure high prices is high prices." If the masses stop buying the price will go down.


Raymond D. Matkowsky


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