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Canadian Gross Domestic Product vs. Productivity Growth
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Canadian Gross Domestic Product vs. Productivity
(Year to Quarter)
| Quarter/Year |
GDP (% Change) |
Productivity (% Change) |
| III/2021 | 3.9 | -5.4 |
| IV/2021 | 3.3 | -4.8 |
| I/2022 | 2.9 | -3.0* |
| II/2022 | 4.6 | -1.6* |
| III/2022 | 0.11 | -0.6* |
| IV/2022 | -0.07 | -0.7 |
| I/2023 | 1.9 | -1.8 |
| II/2023 | 0.5 | -2.2 |
| III/2023 | -0.4 | -2.5 |
| IV/2023 | 1.1 | -1.0 |
| I/2024 | 0.5 | -0.9 |
| II/2024 | 0.9 | -0.7 |
| III/2024 | 1.0 | -0.13 |
| IV/2024 | 0.46 | 0.8 |
| I/2025 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| II/2025 | 5.2 | 0 |
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* Revised from Final Report
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Economic Analysis
Unless otherwise stated all references to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or Productivity is based on year to quarter data. For reasons of continuity and comparisons with previous plots, the limits on the present graph has remained the same as before even though the economic decline exceeds those limits. The data source is Statistics Canada
Economy and Productivity
Statcan reports that the Canadian economy contrcted 0.4% last quarter. However this is comparig the data from the previousd quarter to the data from the second quater of 2025. I have maintained that this practice of both the United States and Canada is decieving. We base are calculationson a yearly basis.
The GDP for the average fully developed western nation grows 2 to 3% a year (excluding Covid years). Growth in the Canadian economy over the last year was 5.2%. In the second quarter of 2024 the GDP was 3.005 trllion. In the second quarter of 2025 the GDP was 3. 162 trillion . This is better than most developed nations. Whether this is permenent state of of the economy or not remains to be seen. However, it is clear that the economy is growing.
Productivity growth has not changed since the second quarter of 2024. As I said last quarter, this is slightly better than the previous 17 quarters. The question is whether or not Canada can maintain this status. The quarter result is a step in the right direction.
I still maintain the belief that the proper authorities, should consider looking at productivity by province/industry. One also needs to consider the reason for low productivity may be quite subtle and only tangibly related to the actual work such as transportation, housing, or available workers.
Raymond D. Matkowsky
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