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GDP (% Yearly Change) vs. Productivity (% Yearly Change)

Canadian Gross Domestic Product vs. Productivity Growth




Canadian Gross Domestic Product vs. Productivity
(Year to Quarter)
Quarter/Year GDP (% Change) Productivity (% Change)
III/2018
1.9
1
IV/2018
1.6
0.3
I/2019
0.7
0.4
II/2019
1.8
0.3
III/2019
1.7
0.6
IV/2019
0.5
0.2
I/2020
-0.9
3.6
II/2020
-16.7
14.9
III/2020
-6.9
4.0
IV2020
-1.3
3.8
I/2021
0.3
-2.1
II/2021
5.7
-12.57
III/2021
3.9
-5.4
IV/2021
3.3
-4.8
I/2022
2.9
-2.6
II/2022
4.6
-2.1


* Revised from Final Report


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Economic Analysis

Unless otherwise stated all references to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or Productivity is based on year to quarter data. For reasons of continuity and comparisons with previous plots, the limits on the present graph has remained the same as before even though the economic decline exceeds those limits. The data source is Statistics Canada

Productivity

Canadian Labour Productivity continues to be variable. It is improving slighhtly. Canada has a high percentage of small businesses when compared to the United States. This is probably the main reasons why it is so hard to improve productivity. However, there maybe many reasons that we are not capable of discerning. As we said last quarter, some will believe it is caused by the lack of investment during the recession. Some will say it is a supply chain problem, although this is improving without much discernable effect. Others attributed this to the fatigue of labour. In most situations inside and outside of economics there is usually more than one cause. Whatever the reasons, they have existed for a long time. Canadian Labour Productivity has been up and down for a long time so the reason are probably structural. It should be looked at since productivity affects the cost of Canadian products.

Economy

The Canadian economy during the second quarter of 2022 advanced by 4.6% for the year to quarter. It is not known whether this is a permenent improve or an artifact of Covid-19 economy. I would expect the Canadian economy to return to its historic norm if nothing intervenes.

Since much of the economy is export driven, many industries will depend on the conditions in other countries. This is especially true for the United States. Recovery in the United States is coming along nicely. Barring supply chain problems, The Bank of Canada is bullish on a recovery and expects the Canadian economy to come roaring back quickly. It appears to be doing so.


Raymond D. Matkowsky


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