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GDP (% Yearly Change) vs. Productivity (% Yearly Change)

Canadian Gross Domestic Product vs. Productivity Growth



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Canadian Gross Domestic Product vs. Productivity
(Year to Quarter)
Quarter/Year GDP (% Change) Productivity (% Change)
III/2014
4.7
3.8
IV/2014
3.8
1.8
I/2015
2.3
2.1
II/2015
1.4
-0.4
III/2015
0.4
-0.75
IV/2015
-0.06
-1.5
I/2016
-0.83
-0.5
II/2016
0.7
0.2
III/2016
1.2
1.5
IV/2016
2.0
1.7
I/2017
2.4
2.6
II/2017
4.5
2.9
III/2017
3.2
0.76
IV/2017
4.9
1.3
I/2018
2.6
-0.6
II/2018
1.7
0


* Revised from Final Report


If you haven't done so yet, we recommend that you review the section on how we suggest this data should be interpeted.


Economic Analysis

Unless otherwise stated all references to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or Productivity is based on year to quarter data.

Canadian GDP And Productivity

The Canadian GDP during the second quarter of 2018 decreased significantly from the first quarter of 2018 and even more significantly from the fourth quarter of 2017. Labour productivity did increase from the dismal reading of the first quarter of 2018. Besides 2018 readings, productivity hadn't been this low since before the second quarter of 2016. It is difficult for someone to determine the reasons for such behavior without an exhaustive study. This is beyond our analysis, however it is some thing that should draw the interest of the Canadian government.

In order to be sucessful at increasing productivity on a national scale, one increases the productivity of an entire industry. Increasing the productivity of individual companies is time consuming and rarely causes much more than a blip on the scale. Canada has something like 1.7 million small businesses. Certainly much more per capita than the United States.

Oil

The largest industry in Canada is the petroleum industry. Canada is the fourth largest producer of oil in the world. It is the fourth largest exporter of oil in the world. Basicly, Canada has only one customer. 99% of exports goes to the United States. The problem with the Canadian Oil Industry is the shortage of pipline capacity both within Canada and to the United States. This has caused many to ship by costly rail and a large drop in the price of Canadian crude with respect to West Texas Intermediate benchmark. This may or may not be the cause of sharp drops GDP and Productivity.

Housing is Still the Weakspot In The Canadian Economy

There has been some change in the market, but housing is still the weakspot in the Canadian economy. This has the potential of bringing the entire economy down. I have mentioned this before, but it seems as not enough has been done in many Canadian cities. This will not end happily for Canada. The same situation has not ended happily for many other countries.


Raymond D. Matkowsky


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