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GDP (% Yearly Change) vs. Productivity (% Yearly Change)

Canadian Gross Domestic Product vs. Productivity Growth




Canadian Gross Domestic Product vs. Productivity
(Year to Quarter)
Quarter/Year GDP (% Change) Productivity (% Change)
I/2014
2.5
2.2
II/2014
2.3
1.8
III/2014
4.7
3.8
IV/2014
3.8
1.8
I/2015
2.3
2.1
II/2015
1.4
-0.4
III/2015
0.4
-0.75
IV/2015
-0.06
-1.5
I/2016
-0.83
-0.5
II/2016
0.7
0.2
III/2016
1.2
1.5
IV/2016
2.0
1.7
I/2017
2.4
2.6
II/2017
4.5
2.9
III/2017
3.2
0.76
IV/2017
4.9
1.3


* Revised from Final Report


If you haven't done so yet, we recommend that you review the section on how we suggest this data should be interpeted.


Economic Analysis

Unless otherwise stated all references to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or Productivity is based on year to quarter data.

Canadian GDP And Productivity

Both Canadian GDP and Labor Productivity have increased during the fourth quarter of 2017. Gross Domestic Product increased 4.9% during the quarter. Productivity increase by 1.3%. In 2017, Canada's Gross Domestic Product grew by 3%.

Oil

For the Canadian economy, oil is a big contributor to both Gross Domestic Product and Productivity. All indications are that it will continue to do so. Canada is has already over taken or will shortly over take Iraq in terms of oil production. It is set to become the world's number two producer behind the United States.

Statcan does not breakout oil separately. They include it under the heading of Minerals, Quarry, Oil and Gas Extraction. It is the third largest in the economy. This subgroup increased 8.2% in 2017 and represents 8.5% of the economy.

At present it is estimated that Canadian oil companies have shaved their costs down to US$40 a barrel. Some have estimated that US$30 is not impossible.

There are headwinds for Canadian Oil Companies. The major problem is that production is exceeding pipeline takeaway capacity. Storage is at near capacity. This means expensive rail transport. Canada and the U.S. need more piplines.

Housing is Still the Weakspot In The Canadian Economy

Housing is still the weakspot in the Canadian economy. This has the potential of bringing the entire economy down. If nothing is done, this will not end happily.


Raymond D. Matkowsky


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