Transmission of material in this release is embargoed until
8:30 a.m. (EDT) May 17, 2016 USDL-16-0986
Technical information: (202) 691-7000 Reed.Steve@bls.gov www.bls.gov/cpi
Media Contact: (202) 691-5902 PressOffice@bls.gov
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX – APRIL 2016
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent
in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 1.1 percent
before seasonal adjustment.
The seasonally adjusted all items increase was broad-based, with the indexes
for food, energy, and all items less food and energy all rising in April. The
food index rose 0.2 percent after declining in March, with the food at home
index increasing slightly. The index for energy increased 3.4 percent, with the
gasoline index rising 8.1 percent, and the indexes for fuel oil and natural gas
also advancing.
The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in April.
The shelter index rose 0.3 percent, as did the index for medical care, and the
indexes for motor vehicle insurance, airline fares, recreation, and education
increased as well. Several other component indexes increased slightly, including
those for alcoholic beverages, tobacco, and personal care. In contrast, the
indexes for household furnishings and operations, apparel, new vehicles, used
cars and trucks, and communication all declined.
The all items index rose 1.1 percent for the 12 months ending April, a larger
increase than the 0.9-percent increase for the 12 months ending March. The index
for all items less food and energy rose 2.1 percent over the last 12 months,
compared to a 2.2-percent rise for the 12 months ending March. The food index
has risen 0.9 percent over the last 12 months, and the energy index has declined
8.9 percent.
Table A. Percent changes in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city
average
Seasonally adjusted changes from
preceding month
Un-
adjusted
12-mos.
Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. ended
2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016 Apr.
2016
All items.................. .2 .1 -.1 .0 -.2 .1 .4 1.1
Food...................... .1 -.1 -.2 .0 .2 -.2 .2 .9
Food at home............. .0 -.3 -.4 -.2 .2 -.5 .1 -.3
Food away from home (1).. .2 .2 .1 .3 .1 .2 .2 2.7
Energy.................... .4 .3 -2.8 -2.8 -6.0 .9 3.4 -8.9
Energy commodities....... .9 .7 -4.8 -4.8 -12.5 1.9 7.8 -14.2
Gasoline (all types).... .9 .8 -4.8 -4.8 -13.0 2.2 8.1 -13.8
Fuel oil (1)............ -1.1 -1.3 -7.8 -6.5 -2.9 1.7 1.9 -27.5
Energy services.......... -.1 -.2 -.7 -.7 .1 .2 -.1 -3.1
Electricity............. .1 .2 -.4 -.7 -.2 .4 -.3 -2.1
Utility (piped) gas
service.............. -.9 -1.7 -1.9 -.6 1.0 -.7 .6 -6.5
All items less food and
energy................. .2 .2 .2 .3 .3 .1 .2 2.1
Commodities less food and
energy commodities.... -.1 -.1 -.1 .2 .3 -.2 -.1 -.5
New vehicles............ -.1 .0 .0 .3 .2 .0 -.3 .0
Used cars and trucks.... -.1 .1 .2 .1 .2 -.1 -.3 -1.5
Apparel................. -.5 -.1 -.2 .6 1.6 -1.1 -.3 -.6
Medical care commodities .2 .2 .1 .4 .6 .3 .5 2.7
Services less energy
services.............. .3 .3 .2 .3 .3 .2 .3 3.0
Shelter................. .3 .2 .2 .3 .3 .2 .3 3.2
Transportation services .1 .5 .3 .4 .2 .2 .7 3.3
Medical care services... .7 .3 .1 .5 .5 .1 .3 3.1
1 Not seasonally adjusted.
Consumer Price Index Data for April 2016
Food
The food index rose 0.2 percent in April after falling 0.2 percent in March.
The food at home index increased 0.1 percent after declining 0.5 percent the
prior month. Major grocery store food group indexes were mixed in April, with
four increases and two declines, and generally small changes. The largest of
the increases belonged to the other food at home group, which rose 0.5 percent.
The index for dairy and related products, which fell in March, rose 0.4 percent
in April. The indexes for cereals and bakery products and for nonalcoholic
beverages both increased 0.3 percent.
The index for fruits and vegetables, however, declined for the second straight
month, falling 0.5 percent as both the fresh fruits and fresh vegetables indexes
decreased. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs fell 0.1 percent, as a
6.3 percent decline in the index for eggs more than offset increases in the
indexes for meats, poultry, and fish. The food at home index has declined 0.3
percent over the past year, with the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs
falling 3.1 percent. The index for food away from home advanced 0.2 percent in
April and has risen 2.7 percent over the last 12 months.
Energy
The energy index rose 3.4 percent in April; this followed a 0.9 percent increase
in March and was its largest increase since February 2013. Most of the rise was
due to the gasoline index, which increased 8.1 percent in April. (Before
seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices increased 9.1 percent in April.) The fuel
oil index also increased, rising 1.9 percent in April. The index for natural gas,
which declined in March, advanced 0.6 percent in April. The electricity index,
however, declined in April, falling 0.3 percent after rising in March. Despite
the monthly increase, the energy index has declined 8.9 percent over the past
year, with all major component indexes falling over the period. The gasoline
index has decreased 13.8 percent over the past year.
All items less food and energy
The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in April after
increasing 0.1 percent in March. The shelter index rose 0.3 percent in April
following a 0.2 percent rise the prior month. The indexes for rent and for owners'
equivalent rent both increased 0.3 percent, while the index for lodging away from
home declined for the second straight month, falling 0.4 percent. The medical care
index rose 0.3 percent in April, with the index for prescription drugs rising 0.7
percent and the hospital services index advancing 0.3 percent, but the physicians'
services index declining 0.1 percent. The motor vehicle insurance index rose 1.2
percent in April, and the index for airline fares advanced 1.1 percent after
declining in March. The recreation index rose 0.3 percent in April, as did the
index for education, and the indexes for alcoholic beverages, tobacco, and
personal care all posted slight increases.
In contrast, the index for household furnishings and operations declined 0.4
percent in April, its largest decline since April 2010. The indexes for apparel,
for new vehicles, and for used cars and trucks also fell in April, each declining
0.3 percent. The index for communication declined as well, falling 0.2 percent.
The index for all items less food and energy increased 2.1 percent over the past
12 months. Indexes posting larger increases include motor vehicle insurance
(6.0 percent), tobacco (3.7 percent), shelter (3.2 percent), and medical care
(3.0 percent). Indexes rising more slowly include personal care (1.7 percent),
recreation (1.3 percent), and airline fares (0.4 percent). The index for new
vehicles was unchanged over the past 12 months, and several indexes declined,
including used cars and trucks (-1.5 percent), household furnishings and
operations (-1.2 percent), and apparel (-0.6 percent).
Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 1.1 percent over
the last 12 months to an index level of 239.261 (1982-84=100). For the month, the
index increased 0.5 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)
increased 0.8 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 233.438
(1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.5 percent prior to seasonal
adjustment.
The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased 0.7
percent over the last 12 months. For the month, the index rose 0.6 percent on a not
seasonally adjusted basis. Please note that the indexes for the past 10 to 12 months
are subject to revision.
The Consumer Price Index for May 2016 is scheduled to be released on Thursday,
June 16, 2016, at 8:30 a.m. (EDT).
Facilities for Sensory Impaired
Information from this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals
upon request. Voice phone: 202-691-5200, Federal Relay Services: 1-800-877-8339.
Brief Explanation of the CPI
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change in prices over
time of goods and services purchased by households. The Bureau of Labor Statistics
publishes CPIs for two population groups: (1) the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and
Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which covers households of wage earners and clerical workers
that comprise approximately 28 percent of the total population and (2) the CPI for All
Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the Chained CPI for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U), which
covers approximately 89 percent of the total population and includes, in addition to
wage earners and clerical worker households, groups such as professional, managerial,
and technical workers, the self-employed, short-term workers, the unemployed, and
retirees and others not in the labor force.
The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, fuels, transportation fares,
charges for doctors’ and dentists’ services, drugs, and other goods and services that
people buy for day-to-day living. Prices are collected each month in 87 urban areas
across the country from about 6,000 housing units and approximately 24,000 retail
establishments-department stores, supermarkets, hospitals, filling stations, and other
types of stores and service establishments. All taxes directly associated with the
purchase and use of items are included in the index. Prices of fuels and a few other
items are obtained every month in all 87 locations. Prices of most other commodities
and services are collected every month in the three largest geographic areas and every
other month in other areas. Prices of most goods and services are obtained by personal
visits or telephone calls of the Bureau’s trained representatives.
In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each location are
averaged together with weights, which represent their importance in the spending of the
appropriate population group. Local data are then combined to obtain a U.S. city average.
For the CPI-U and CPI-W separate indexes are also published by size of city, by region
of the country, for cross-classifications of regions and population-size classes, and
for 27 local areas. Area indexes do not measure differences in the level of prices among
cities; they only measure the average change in prices for each area since the base
period. For the C-CPI-U data are issued only at the national level. It is important to
note that the CPI-U and CPI-W are considered final when released, but the C-CPI-U is
issued in preliminary form and subject to two annual revisions.
The index measures price change from a designed reference date. For the CPI-U and the
CPI-W the reference base is 1982-84 equals 100. The reference base for the C-CPI-U is
December 1999 equals 100. An increase of 16.5 percent from the reference base, for
example, is shown as 116.500. This change can also be expressed in dollars as follows:
the price of a base period market basket of goods and services in the CPI has risen
from $10 in 1982-84 to $11.65.
For further details visit the CPI home page on the Internet at www.bls.gov/cpi/ or
contact our CPI Information and Analysis Section on (202) 691-7000.
Note on Sampling Error in the Consumer Price Index
The CPI is a statistical estimate that is subject to sampling error because it is based
upon a sample of retail prices and not the complete universe of all prices. BLS
calculates and publishes estimates of the 1-month, 2-month, 6-month and 12-month percent
change standard errors annually, for the CPI-U. These standard error estimates can be
used to construct confidence intervals for hypothesis testing. For example, the estimated
standard error of the 1 month percent change is 0.04 percent for the U.S. All Items
Consumer Price Index. This means that if we repeatedly sample from the universe of all
retail prices using the same methodology, and estimate a percentage change for each sample,
then 95% of these estimates would be within 0.08 percent of the 1 month percentage change
based on all retail prices. For example, for a 1-month change of 0.2 percent in the All
Items CPI for All Urban Consumers, we are 95 percent confident that the actual percent
change based on all retail prices would fall between 0.12 and 0.28 percent. For the latest
data, including information on how to use the estimates of standard error, see "Variance
Estimates for Price Changes in the Consumer Price Index, January-December 2014." These
data are available on the CPI home page (www.bls.gov/cpi), or by using the following
link: www.bls.gov/cpi/cpivar2014.pdf
Calculating Index Changes
Movements of the indexes from one month to another are usually expressed as percent changes
rather than changes in index points, because index point changes are affected by the level
of the index in relation to its base period while percent changes are not. The example
below illustrates the computation of index point and percent changes.
Percent changes for 3-month and 6-month periods are expressed as annual rates and are
computed according to the standard formula for compound growth rates. These data indicate
what the percent change would be if the current rate were maintained for a 12-month period.
Index Point Change
CPI 202.416
Less previous index 201.800
Equals index point change .616
Percent Change
Index point difference .616
Divided by the previous index 201.800
Equals 0.003
Results multiplied by one hundred 0.003x100
Equals percent change 0.3
A Note on the Use of Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data
Introduction
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) produces both unadjusted and seasonally adjusted data.
Seasonally adjusted data are computed using seasonal factors derived by the X-13ARIMA-SEATS
Seasonal Adjustment Method. These factors are updated each February, and the new factors are
used to revise the previous five years of seasonally adjusted data. For more information on
data revisions and exceptions to the usual revision schedule, please see the Fact Sheet on
Seasonal Adjustment (http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpisaqanda.htm) and the Timeline of Seasonal
Adjustment Methodological Changes (http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpiseastimeline.htm).
How to Use Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data
For analyzing short-term price trends in the economy, seasonally adjusted changes are usually
preferred since they eliminate the effect of changes that normally occur at the same time and
in about the same magnitude every year—such as price movements resulting from changing
climatic conditions, production cycles, model changeovers, holidays, and sales. This allows
data users to focus on changes that are not typical for the time of year. The unadjusted data
are of primary interest to consumers concerned about the prices they actually pay. Unadjusted
data are also used extensively for escalation purposes. Many collective bargaining contract
agreements and pension plans, for example, tie compensation changes to the Consumer Price Index
before adjustment for seasonal variation. BLS advises against the use of seasonally adjusted
data in escalation agreements because seasonally adjusted series are revised annually.
Intervention Analysis
The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment for some CPI
series. Sometimes extreme values or sharp movements can distort the underlying seasonal pattern
of price change. Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment is a process by which the distortions
caused by such unusual events are estimated and removed from the data prior to calculation of
seasonal factors. The resulting seasonal factors, which more accurately represent the seasonal
pattern, are then applied to the unadjusted data.
2016 Series Adjusted Using Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment
For the seasonal factors introduced in January 2016, BLS adjusted 37 series using Intervention
Analysis Seasonal Adjustment, including selected food and beverage items, motor fuels and natural
gas. For example, this procedure was used for the Motor fuel series to offset the effects of
events such as the response in crude oil markets to the worldwide economic downturn in 2008.
Revision of Seasonally Adjusted Indexes
Seasonally adjusted data, including the U.S. city average All items index levels, are subject to
revision for up to five years after their original release. Every year, economists in the CPI
calculate new seasonal factors for seasonally adjusted series and apply them to the last five years
of data. Seasonally adjusted indexes beyond the last five years of data are considered to be final
and not subject to revision. In January 2016, revised seasonal factors and seasonally adjusted
indexes for 2011-2015 were calculated and published. For directly adjusted series, the seasonal
factors for 2015 will be applied to data in 2016 to produce the seasonally adjusted 2016 indexes.
Determining Seasonal Status
Each year the seasonal status of every series is reevaluated based upon certain statistical criteria.
Using these criteria, BLS economists determine whether a series should change its status: from "not
seasonally adjusted" to "seasonally adjusted", or vice versa. If any of the 81 components of the U.S.
city average all items index change their seasonal adjustment status from seasonally adjusted to not
seasonally adjusted, not seasonally adjusted data will be used in the aggregation of the dependent
series for the last five years, but the seasonally adjusted indexes before that period will not be
changed. 28 of the 81 components of the U.S. city average all items index are not seasonally adjusted
for 2016.
Contact Information
For additional information on seasonal adjustment in the CPI, please write to the Bureau of Labor
Statistics, Division of Consumer Prices and Price Indexes, Washington, DC 20212 or contact Justin
Yarros, Samuel An or Marie Rogers at (202) 691-6968 or by e-mail at Yarros.Justin@bls.gov,
An.Samuel@bls.gov or Rogers.Marie@bls.gov. If you have general questions about the CPI, please call
our information staff at (202) 691-7000.
